Is this spring?
Reporter Darren Devine from the Western Mail asks an interesting question in his new article,”Have seasons disappeared from our weather?”
Devine quotes BBC Radio 2’s gardening expert Terry Walton, who says “there’s no seasonality whatsoever now” when it comes to Wales weather.
“Back in the 50s and 60s you knew come mid-September you’d get your first frost and everything was finished off,” says Walton in Devine’s article. “Then you’d get winter with snow and frost and come February it would start to warm up. By April it would be slightly warm with rain and May to August would be the four-month growing season. But we’re definitely not getting that now.”
We did a quick scan of headlines to see how spring is shaping-up in the United States. “Allergy season” is underway in Iowa, according to the Chicago Tribune. It’s unusually snowy in Alaska, according to the Daily News Minor. Ryan Smith from the Meadville Tribune writes “Errant spring weather casts doubt on crops” in Pennsylvania’s Crawford County. “Chilly May debut: Cooler spring weather slows snowmelt - and that’s good,” according to Judy Fahys from The Salt Lake Tribune and Sharon Nesbit from The Gresham Outlook in Oregon writes “Yep, expert says spring weather was colder than usual.” Spring has something different to offer everyone, it seems. To see what type of extreme spring weather is happening in your area, checkout our Extreme Weather Widget at www.weatherbill.com.
So are seasons disappearing? We’ve done lots of research into weather trends in the US and have found that 57% of US cities are getting warmer in the winter. 15% of US cities are getting warmer in the summer. In other words, when it comes to temperature, winters are getting shorter and summers are lasting longer in many cities. Regarding precipitation, 25% of US cities are getting drier while 12% are getting rainier. Seasons aren’t disappearing, they’re changing. Maybe it’s time to re-think what types of weather define our seasons.
Posted on Mon May 12 11:26:28 CDT 2008And we’re back…
Sorry about the delay in blog content. We have a good excuse! Last week we attended the Risk and Insurance Management Society (RIMS) annual conference in San Diego. This was our first time at the show and it turned out great. We talked to lots of different business owners, risk managers, CFO’s, and insurance brokers from a wide range of weather-sensitive companies. Many people were shocked when they heard that we pay for bad weather without proof of loss.
At the show we announced that we have signed a new Risk Capacity Agreement with Nephila Capital, extending the strategic partnership between our companies. Under the terms of the Agreement, Nephila will continue to provide us with risk capacity and collateral, via the Nimbus Weather Fund, to support the coverage we provide. Nephila is a leading fund manager that specializes in catastrophe reinsurance and weather risk. They are also a strategic investor in WeatherBill.
Stay tuned for pictures from the show, including some very happy people who won $100 just for wearing our big, orange buttons!
Posted on Mon May 05 11:36:47 CDT 2008There are two things you can’t run from.
The law and the weather. Sometimes both. At the same time.
Bad weather turned out to be a good thing for law enforcement in Afghanistan. Check out The Independent’s article “Freak weather destroys Afghan poppies.”
Posted on Tue Apr 22 19:45:05 CDT 2008Rattlesnake Season
Arizona Republic reporter Claudia Koerner brought up a different kind of weather risk today: rattles snake bites. “Bites are more common between now and September as nighttime temperatures hover in the 80s and 90s,” writes Koerner. A Doctor she interviews in the article “Rattlesnake bites on the rise as weather warms” calls this time of year “rattlesnake season.” We guess that means rattlesnake antidotes are popular, weather-sensitive spring-time remedies.
There are other less extreme and far more prevalent health risks associated with spring time, like allergies. This time of year there is a spike in purchases for allergy medications, facial tissues, eye drops, and other types of allergy soothers. The companies that supply those products are weather-sensitive. If the winter runs longer their top sales-season get’s cut short. If the spring’s milder temperatures last longer, those companies could make more money.
Posted on Fri Apr 18 12:45:42 CDT 2008Earnings Reports & Weather
It’s inevitable. Every quarter, public companies announce their earnings and, during at least one announcement, a CEO or CFO starts talking about the weather. Ronald Snyder of Crocs, Inc., the maker of those comfy, swiss cheese-looking shoes, is one of those CEO’s.
Crocs’ shares were down 43 percent Tuesday. The company is now closing a manufacturing plant in Canada, eliminating 600 jobs, reducing discretionary spending and the use of airfreight, according to the International Herald Tribune.
Snyder gives an overview of the company’s first quarter earnings in the “Crocs, Inc. Q1 2008 Preliminary Guidance Earnings Call Transcript.” He says the company is expecting January -March, 2008 sales to be around $195 to $200 million. The company had originally estimated $225 million (the company still saw about a 40% increase in sales for the quarter).
According to the earnings transcript, Snyder says that “colder than normal temperatures across much of the US have delayed the starts to the spring season.” Snyder says those unusually cold temperatures “have impacted sales of sandals and other open-toed footwear throughout the industry.”
“We’re disappointed in the results for Q1,” explains Snyder. “Obviously it was somewhat related to market trends and weather patterns that we didn’t have control over.”
As our regular readers know, we usually don’t preach in this blog. It’s much more fun to discuss things like how rain affects Democrats and our CTO’s encounter with Tibetan weather. We’ve been really good, so please excuse a quick soap box sentence: No one has control over the weather but companies big and small can protect their bottom line and control costs from the impact of unpredictable weather. Since the soap box is gone, we’ll let you guess which new company (”cough… WeatherBill…”) offers that protection.
As for Crocs, hopefully there will be sunny, and warm, skys ahead. Snyder says spring and summer are the company’s top sales seasons. “We do feel very confident going into the now busy season,” he says. “We’re now starting to see some of that improvement in April, as the weather starts to warm and the business starts to grow.”
Posted on Wed Apr 16 18:41:07 CDT 2008Ski Industry: The United States 2007-2008 Ski Season is a Success
First Tracks, the online ski magazine, just released a new article titled “Ski and Snowboard Equipment Sales Boom.” According to the article, ski/ snowboard equipment and apparel raked in $2.35 billion through January; representing 13 percent growth over last season.
“The subprime mortgage crisis, the falling value of the dollar, increasing prices for consumer goods, and the high price of petroleum have hit the economy very hard but when the snow is good nothing will keep people off the slopes,” explains Kelly Davis from SnowSports Industries America (SIA) in the First Tracks article. Read the rest of the article to find out what types of cold-weather gear sold like hot cakes.
SIA is a non-profit trade group that represents product manufacturers and distributes in the snow sports industry. We’re big fans of their magazine, T.I.P, here at WeatherBill. The most recent issue available online, Winter ‘08, begins with a welcome from the editor: “Hopefully, by the time you are reading this, Mother Nature has blessed us with copious amounts of snow and retail shops are buzzing with customers eager to hit the mountains.” T.I.P, and the rest of the snow sports industry, got their wish:
- For the first time in 42 winters, total snowfall exceeded 600 inches at Jackson Hole Mountain Resort.
- More snow fell in Milwaukee this past winter than any other in the past 122 years.
- The snow isn’t stopping even though Aspen Mountain and Snowmass are closing for the season on April 13th. Aspen is expecting 6 to 12 inches of new snow today.
- Vermont ski areas have seen “surprising” season totals, according to MarketWatch. This is great news for many New England resorts.
Resorts, ski equipment retailers and manufacturers can avoid seeing red, even in years when winter isn’t as white as it should be. They can increase sales by offering bad weather refunds on seasonal items like season passes, skis, and snowmobiles. Snowmobile manufacturer Bombardier was one of the first non-energy companies to create a weather promotion backed by the type of weather coverage offered by WeatherBill. Bombardier offered customers in the Midwest a $1,000 rebate on snowmobiles if the 2000 season didn’t get enough snow. According to Bombardier, customers purchased snowmobiles months earlier than normal. The promotion increased sales by 38%.
Posted on Mon Apr 07 15:43:58 CDT 2008The Economic Power of Weather Data
Five day forecasts are a luxury. We can turn on our computers, visit our local television station’s website or www.weather.com, and get a forecast in a few seconds. It’s an action we can take for granted. When was the last time you thought, “Wow! I can get my local forecast, at anytime, from lots of different sources”?
Many developing countries are operating with marginal, if any, National Meteorological Service (NMS). Five day forecasts aren’t easy to come by in Africa. That needs to change, and it needs to change soon, according to United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This week the United Nations News Service reports that because of “Africa’s vulnerability to climate change, variability and extreme weather events, better meteorological services are crucial for its development and the struggle against poverty.” The head of the WMO explains that “African countries are among the world’s least developed and consequently are the most susceptible to threats posed by meteorological and hydrological disasters, such as drought, flooding, cyclones, dust storms and other extreme weather events.”
“It is becoming increasingly clear that the provision of state-of-the-art public weather services represents a cost-effective investment for most, if not all, developing countries” writes John W. Zillman in Public Weather Services Challenges in Developing Countries Including Measuring Economic Benefits. This is the case in Rwanda; a country that is now the 13th member of RANET, an organization that is making weather and climate data available to developing countries. Having access to accurate weather data is powerful. That data can save agricultural-dependent economies by saving crops. According to the International Food Policy Research Institute, nearly one billion people live in poverty and suffer chronic hunger. Two-thirds of those individuals are farmers.
“The timing of the installation of this satellite radio and internet facility could not have been better,” explains an article about RANET in Rwanda in The New Times. “With the increasing irregularity of seasonal rains, climate information is useful to farmers. They will now make more informed decisions on when to plant seeds and choosing what crops and varieties to ensure household food security and incomes.”
It’s not just the crops that benefit. The Rwandan tourism industry will also thrive thanks to forecasts. “Visitors coming from countries where weather forecast is like a right to citizens will find the predictability an added incentive in deciding on Rwanda as their destination, to stay longer or come again,” explains The New Times article. “Even social events organizers will have more fitting budgets, with less miscellaneous portfolio, to present to clients.”
To see how weather impacts your business, for free, visit www.weatherbill.com/tools/secure/home.
Posted on Fri Apr 04 12:57:13 CDT 2008Weather Promotions
The Farmer’s Almanac recently ran a Wedding Weather Contest. Couples submitted their worst-weather scenarios from their actual weddings to win a 7 day cruise. The winning couple were married during a record 21-inch snow storm, giving new meaning to “White Wedding.”
The Wedding Weather Contest is a great way for Farmer’s Almanac to get to know their readers and draw people to their site. We only wish that the grand prize came with a WeatherBill good weather guarantee: “It stormed the first time around. Now the honeymoon comes with a good weather guarantee!”
Weather promotions have been popular business tools for decades. Here are some more recent examples:
1. A Fresno, CA jewelry store runs an annual Winter Weather event. Jewelry purchased between November 23rd and December 24 will be refunded it rains more than 1/3 of an inch the first half of New Year’s Day.
2. This year the Philadelphia Zoo ran a “Pay the Weather” promotion that linked the zoo’s admission price the temperature. If the temperature was in the 30’s visitors paid $3. If the mercury hit the 40’s they paid $4; 50’s? $5. Pretty cool!
3. www.itravel200.com ran a promotion that refunded summer vacations for Canadian travelers if it snowed more than 5 inches at their local airport on New Year’s day. Read “Thousands of Quebecers win free vacation contest” for more.
Retailers, manufacturers, travel companies, and outdoor ticketed events are all great candidates for weather promotions.
Posted on Mon Mar 31 17:50:52 CDT 2008Iberia, Alternative Energy, & Weather
The price of power on the Iberian peninsula is down this week. That’s because temperatures are up after unseasonably cold weather. “The drop shrugged off upside pressure from flagging wind power and a rise in demand,” explains the Reuters article “Iberian power prices dip on weather, nuclear plant.”
The Iberian peninsula relies heavily on alternative energy sources like wind, solar, and water. Hydro electric power is especially effective in Iberia but when precipitation runs low, the peninsula turns to wind. According to the Reuters article, “Spain has relied more on wind power in recent months as one of the driest winters in memory has left reservoirs for hydroelectric plants barely half-full.”
Construction is underway on four hydro electric plants in Portugal. The goal is to increase hydro capacity in Iberia by 36 percent in 2015, according to the Forbes article “EDP expects to have 842 megawatts of hydro capacity under construction in 2008.” The EDP is the Energias de Portugal. One megawatt is enough to power 1,000 average California homes, according to www.consumerenergycenter.org.
Wind farms make-up a large part of Spain’s alternative energy strategy. “Overall wind farm production is set to double to 12 percent over the next four years, giving some 20,000 megawatts of installed capacity” by 2010, according to The International Herald Tribune. The Tribune reports that Spain is ahead of the United States with installed wind power capacity.
During the mid-1990’s, traditional energy companies were some of the first to use financial tools to hedge the risk of unseasonable weather. Today’s alternative energy businesses also need to protect their revenue and control costs from weather. The Weather Risk Management industry is providing financial tools that will help protect energy profits, and energy consumers, from unpredictable weather.
Posted on Wed Mar 26 19:41:30 CDT 2008Cold Weather Chills Canadian Railroad Earnings
National Post reporter Scott Deveau writes today that unusual winter weather has lowered quarterly earnings for Canadian railways.
“Canadian railways have had a rocky first quarter, with unusually extreme cold weather and high winds in the West and high snow falls in the East causing delays, derailments, and outright stoppages.”
Read the entire article, “Canadian railway earnings can’t weather the storm.” This January Canada National (CN) railway reported major shipping delays because of cold weather. Lower earnings because of weather is never a good thing; but the timing is especially poor for CN. The company recently offered to spend $40 million on new overpasses in Illinois. Higher costs and lower earnings are a bad combination. Unusual weather doesn’t help.
Posted on Wed Mar 19 12:28:31 CDT 2008Warmer Weather = More Car Theft
From www.freefoto.com
Every 25.5 seconds in the United States a car is stolen, according to the National Insurance Crime Bureau (NICB). Most car thefts happen in warmer weather, with the peak car theft month being July, according to the director of the Michigan State Police.
Crime experts say the reason for the increase in car theft is that warm weather typically entices people to leave the car windows cracked and the car running with the air conditioning on while on a quick errand. If you think you are going to be quick, consider this: it takes less than 10 minutes to break into a locked car; seconds if the car is unlocked.
In 2006 the NICB released a report identifying the top locations for car thefts in the US. The #1 region for car thefts is the West. The states with the highest rate of auto theft are California, Nevada, Arizona and Washington state. Las Vegas has the highest rate of car theft per capita in the US. Other crime rates can also increase in states with warmer weather. Reporter Paul Walsh explains that cooler states tend to be safer than warmer weather states in the article “Ranking: Criminals more active in warm-weather states” for the Star Tribune (3/18/2008).
Michigan created a program called Help Eliminate Auto Theft (HEAT) in 1985. As of 2006, the organization has helped recover more than $43 million in stolen property and arrest more than 3,000 auto theft suspects. In a letter to WeatherBill, Terri Miller, the director of HEAT, gave us some advice:
“With spring and summer weather on the horizon, now is a great time to start practicing good habits to help eliminate auto thefts. Warm weather in spring and summer months can lead to carelessness among car owners, providing thieves with easy access to personal property and vehicles. Regardless of location, everyone can practice these tips to keep cars and belongings safe during warm weather:”
1. Closed Not Cracked– Close windows tightly, don’t even leave them “cracked” and always lock your car when your vehicle is unattended.
2. Out of Sight– Keep all personal belongings, including iPods, cell phones and other valuables, out of sight.
3. Lock Your Top– Close and lock convertible car tops.
To find out if there is an auto theft prevention program in your area, contact your state police department. If your business is located in an area where warm weather can affect the crime rate, you could consider supplementing your business insurance with seasonal warm weather coverage.
Posted on Tue Mar 18 16:08:48 CDT 2008Extreme Frost Protection
Spring weather is right around the corner but, for the next couple of months, many growers will be worried about freezing temperatures. Frost damage is a major threat to United States crops. Frost causes more economic loss than any other natural disaster including earthquakes, floods, droughts, hurricanes, and tornadoes, according to R.L. Snyder, a Biometeorology Specialist in the Department of Land, Air and Water Resources at the University of California, Davis.
In World-wide Frost Problems and Frost Protection, Snyder explains that most growers practice “passive protection” against frost, meaning they use biological and ecological techniques to protect their crops from frost. Passive protection can include site selection, managing the ratio of water and soil, and controlling bacteria. Many growers also initiate “active protection,” which is temporary and energy intensive (not to mention expensive). Active protection can include heaters, covers, and sprinklers.
Then you have more extreme forms of active protection. In The Florida Times-Union article “Blueberry growers race freeze to save their crops,” (April 7, 2007) reporter Mike Morrison describes some of these extreme measures. As he wrote the article, temperatures were predicted to hit 30-degree lows and blueberry growers were pulling out all the stops to protect their crops. One grower surrounded his fields with bales of hay and then set them on fire. This created a smoke “blanket” that insulated the berries. That same grower also deployed helicopters from Atlanta to fly over his fields and force warmer air from above onto the crops. Just as a side note, WeatherBill frost coverage can help cover the costs of active protection. Helicopters certainly don’t come cheap.
Morrison’s article ends with the quotations of the week:
“This [blueberry] industry has been fantastic… but it’s still farming. People forget that. It’s like gambling.”
“When you’re farming, all you can do is hope… because you sure can’t control the weather.”
To create custom coverage for your blueberries, visit www.weatherbill.com/quote.
Posted on Fri Mar 14 17:31:20 CDT 2008Wheat & Your Wallet
Source: www.freefoto.com
Three consecutive years of bad weather have sent wheat prices surging.
“Drought ravaged crops in Australia in the past two years, and an April freeze followed by excessive rainfall last year curbed yields in the U.S., the largest wheat exporter,” writes Tony Dreibus for Bloomberg in the article “Wheat rises as investors bet crops will face adverse weather.” By the end of May, the United States Department of Agriculture estimates that wheat stockpiles in the United States will be at their lowest in 60 years.
For many of us those numbers don’t amount to much until they start showing up on our sales receipts. For example, higher wheat prices could already be making your pizzas more expensive. AP reporter Jeff Karoub writes in The Seattle Times article “Pizza makers must weigh rising costs of wheat with competition” that one Detroit-area chain has seen their commodity costs triple since last year because of flour prices.
“We’re stuck with an uncertain future as well as price increases … that are unprecedented,” says Buddy’s Pizza vice president Wes Pikula.
Many pizza chains are coping by charging the same amount for cheese pizza as they do for pizzas with toppings. Others are pushing thin-crust alternatives. The cost of pizza has already increased this year because or rising milk prices (driven by international demand and bad weather). Besides pizza chains, the rising price of wheat is also being reflected on price labels up and down grocery store aisles.
“Rising prices have hurt some companies that use the grain, including Kellogg Co. and General Mills Inc., the largest U.S. cereal-makers,” writes Dreibus. “Both companies said they have raised prices partly to offset higher wheat costs.”
Wheat is a $13.7 billion dollar crop in the United States alone. It’s the nation’s fourth-largest crop behind corn, soybeans, and hay.
Posted on Mon Mar 03 17:46:39 CST 2008The Wheat Game
This morning Aisling, one of our talented interns, found “The Wheat Game” on the Kansas State Historical Society website. The game lets you pretend like you are a wheat grower making critical decisions that will affect your crop’s yield. You decide what variety of seed to plant, what type of sprays to use, and what year you are growing the crop. That last part of the game is all about the weather. Play it and you’ll see how it works.
Meantime Aisling is thinking of becoming a wheat farmer. She reaped five bushels an acre over the state average… on her first try. What a natural! It’s also proof that we have the best interns.
Posted on Wed Feb 27 12:40:08 CST 2008New Survey: Work attendance AND productivity impacted by weather
Employers have always known that bad weather causes poor employee attendance. A new survey proves it. The Workforce Institute at Kronos Incorporated sponsored a survey that found 33% of full-time employees surveyed had their commute to or from work affected by weather in the past three months.
That poor attendance (whether being late, leaving early, or not coming in at all) also impacts productivity. According to the study, out of the 44% of employees who say the weather impacted their schedule, 39% say they experience a loss in productivity. What are they doing besides work?
76% are discussing the weather with co-workers
73% are watching weather out the window
17% are making arrangements for child care, travel, etc.
The Workforce Institute has a great blog. Click here to watch their video interviews with weather-wary employees.
Posted on Fri Feb 22 15:31:18 CST 2008A government missile, a toxic satellite, and a serious storm
USS Lake Erie launches a standard Missile-3 (From AFP)
When the United States government decides to shoot down a wayward spy satellite there’s only one thing that can stop them: the weather. Trouble started in 2006 when the bus-sized satellite’s central computer failed and Earth’s gravity began pulling it in; complete with the satellite’s toxic fuel tank. This week the government decided to shoot it down before it showered Earth, specifically Canada, with toxic debris.
The Pentagon announced on Wednesday that bad weather could delay the missile launch from a Navy ship in the North Pacific. The first issue was the time delay. As the storm continued, so did the satellite on it’s path towards Earth. The second issue was rough water and low clouds. Shooting a moving target from a platform that is also moving isn’t typically a recipe for success. Understandably, the mission was a very sensitive one. Firing missiles at anything, even a toxic satellite, is a serious maneuver that can cause international concern. This is not a situation where blaming the weather is acceptable. The final word on the storm was that if the weather improved before the day was over the mission would go as planned.
Canada, rest assured, it did. The Associated Press tells this story well.
Posted on Thu Feb 21 12:18:57 CST 2008Would you like a side of E.coli with that heat wave?
Weather never sounded so unappetizing. New research indicates that the hot summer in 2006 could have increased the number of food poison cases in the United Kingdom. “The rise is the first increase since 2000, overturning a significant downward trend in the figures in recent years,” according to the United Kingdom’s Telegraph.
The Telegraph article, “Weather linked to rise in food poisoning,” reports that cases of salmonella and E.coli were up 10% between 2005 and 2006. Some experts speculate that hot summers lead to more food poison cases because there are more barbecues where food is left out of the fridge for longer periods. Other suspect it’s the extreme conditions the food is grown, processed and shipped in. One thing is certain: the increase is food poisonings is expensive. It is estimated that food poison cases cost the British economy £1.4 billion. That figure includes “NHS costs, costs to the patient including medicine and transport, plus loss of earnings suffered by patients and their carers,” according to the Telegraph.
The International Journal of Biometeorology published a study in 2001 that found warm weather enhances the multiplication of pathogenic micro-organisms (yum). The study, called “Environmental temperatures and the incidence of food poisoning in England and Wales,” reports that “weekly notifications of food poisoning in England and Wales are strongly associated with environmental temperatures” but that association grew stronger “with temperatures 2-5 weeks earlier, pointing to the importance of factors operating earlier in the food production or distribution system.” Hungry yet?
Posted on Thu Feb 14 12:50:37 CST 2008Now that’s COLD!
This week Midwesterners are craving a better expression for cold than just “brrrrr.” Sunday’s National Weather Service readings explain why:
Madison, Wisconsin: -4 degrees Fahrenheit, -25 wind chill
Devils Lake, North Dakota: -20 degrees Fahrenheit, -38 wind chill
International Falls, Minnesota: -15 degrees Fahrenheit, -40 wind chill (new record for the “Icebox of The Nation”)
The cold snap is causing many businesses to shut their doors and other organizations to cancel events. Here are some less obvious ways cold-sensitive businesses can protect their profits:
1. Places of Worship
According to The Grand Rapids Press, churches across western Michigan canceled services yesterday. Churches and many other places of worship are non-profits that depend on attendance and collections. Canceled services are bad news for church revenue. Churches, synagogues and temples can all customize Weather Contracts to protect weekends or a single day of the week when services are held. Places of Worship can protect against freezing temperatures and heat that may impact attendance, collections, fund raisers and energy bills.
2. Shipping
Trucks may be ready to roll in all types of weather but they’re stuck when the State Highway Patrol shuts down icy roads. Detours can be costly since they are less direct and require more fuel. Missing delivery deadlines can cost money and reputation. Shipping companies can utilize Weather Contracts to protect during weekdays-only in months when severe cold is a threat.
3. Restaurants
Frozen power lines can snap and cause power outages that can last for days. Restaurants can use Weather Contracts to off-set the costs of generators that will keep business going. The contracts can also compensate for snowed-in regulars and out-of-towners who are deterred by freezing temperatures.
Pet Food Equation: Hot Dog = Chilled Profits
PetSmart is a retailer and we all know that retail is weather-sensitive. What you may not know is that warm weather effects PetSmart consumers in a unique way. According to Forbes reporter Melanie Linder, unusually warm winter weather can take a bite out of PetSmart’s winter profits. That’s because “dogs eat less in warm weather, which may have decreased the number of consumers buying dog food” during 2007’s 3rd quarter. Linder writes in the article “PetSmart: Colder Weather, Fatter Dogs, Bigger Profits” that warm weather also decreases sales of animal apparel (i.e. a hoodie for your chihuahua) and bedding. While pet retail is down in warm weather, pet services, like grooming, go up. In 2007’s warm third quarter, PetSmart veterinary grooming services were up 23%, raking in $111 million.
Posted on Fri Feb 01 12:29:10 CST 2008No Snow Means Low Cash Flow for Some NYC Businesses
“This month is set to become the first January in 75 years that New York City has been without any measurable snowfall,” writes New York Sun reporter Jared Irmas. He goes on to define “measurable snowfall” as less than one-tenth of an inch in the article “Lack of January Snow is a First in 75 Years.” New York usually gets eight inches of snow in January. Irmas interviews a meteorologist with the National Weather Service who says the low snow is the result of fewer Atlantic storms that produce the cold air necessary for snow.
What makes Irmas’ Sun article unique from others reporting on the low snow is that he explains how New York businesses are being impacted. “Local businesses that thrive on white winters are feeling the crunch,” writes Irmas. “The owner of Garber Hardware, Nathaniel Garber, said he has sold only four bags this month of salt, an essential commodity for homeowners, shopkeepers, and apartment building superintendents with snow or ice to melt on the curb.” Other businesses impacted by unusually warm winters include large snow plow/ removal companies (both residential and urban) and energy providers. Energy providers were the first companies to utilize weather futures as a way to hedge their weather risk. Now Garber Hardware can too.
Posted on Wed Jan 30 15:10:49 CST 20081,000+ Ski Areas are Closed in the US
After 47 years of family skiing, the slopes of Powder Ridge Ski Area in Connecticut are empty. It officially closed last year. Earlier this month Courant writer Alaine Griffin explained that Powder Ridge suffered from the “elusive snowfall” which ” hurt ski-season business through the years.” The lack of snow deepened the ski area’s financial troubles, forcing it to close. Next month Powder Ridge could be sold at auction as part of the pending Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
Powder Ridge is not alone. The New York Times recently reported that more than 1,000 ski areas have closed in the United States. 145 in Colorado. 113 of them are in Vermont. The New England Lost Ski Areas Project (www.nelsap.org) has uncovered 588 closed ski areas in New England. Many of these ski areas were small, family-owned businesses that depended on natural snow.
Making snow isn’t cheap. In the January 13th article “What’s a Ski Area to Do As It Warms? Adapt.” Times reporter Fran Silverman writes “Mild winters and the rising cost of making snow have local ski operators rethinking how to stay in business. ” In 2007, Vermont’s Mount Snow announced a $3.5 million upgrade to its snow-making capabilities. Mid-priced snow cannons run about $10,000 each and use hundreds of gallons of water per minute (3.2 Gallons = 1 Ft³ of snow). Other snow-makers require air compressors that cost $250,000 and new pipelines to operate. According to Ratnick Industries, a proper snow-making system should cost 15%-25% of a ski center’s total operating expenses.
Then there’s the electricity bill. According to Butternut ski area in Massachusetts, “electricity cost alone may eat up as much as 18 to 22% of a resorts total net revenue. This is just the cost for electricity and does not include any costs for labor, equipment, fuel, insurance, overhead, reinvestment, leasing, taxes and the mirade of other costs that need to come out of each lift ticket.”
Snow-making is expensive but without it the number of closed ski areas in the US would be significantly higher.
Posted on Fri Jan 25 13:51:03 CST 2008Hay sheds “spontaneously bursting into flames”
In Australia, hay farmers are dealing with an unusual weather risk equation:
Drought +Summer Rain + Hot, Dry Weather = Spontaneous Hay Fires
The Australian’s Asa Wahlquist writes that “unusual weather patterns have accelerated one of the strangest phenomena witnessed in the bush: an unprecedented number of haysheds have been spontaneously bursting into flames.” Wahlquist interviews an executive officer with the Australian Fodder Industry Association in the article “Bizarre weather sends hay bales up in flames.” The officer says there have been around 400 spontaneous fires since October and they are primarily occurring in wheat and barley that have been bailed for hay. One of the fires in Southern Australia is pictured on the ABC News website. Wahlquist writes that some of these fires are taking place in open fields but others are causing considerable amounts of damage to silos and barns.
The Australian Fodder Industry Association (AFIA) is working to manage the risks of the fires, which isn’t easy since the phenomenon has not been well documented (see the link for pictures of a spontaneous hay fire). A hypothetical weather contract designed to protect against this risk would be based on heavy rainfall for the duration of the storage period.
Posted on Mon Jan 21 13:29:13 CST 2008Is La Nina Impacting Your Business?
2008 is a La Nina’s year but, like El Nino, these types of weather events can last for several years. Unlike our structured Gregorian business calendars with defined quarters and reporting periods, weather events are operating in their own time element. Take last year for example, when hurricanes didn’t get the pop-up message on their Outlook calendar that they were supposed to stop forming on the last day of November. The question is, did you schedule La Nina into your Outlook?
Industries like Underwater Tourism are keenly aware of how weather events like La Nina impact their profits. Since this is La Nina’s year, the Pacific Ocean is cooler with stronger trade winds and more nutrient-rich water. Coral reefs typically thrive in La Nina years, especially reefs that have been damaged by years with above average temperature (El Nino years) according to The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).
“Scientists at the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority say recent rainy conditions associated with the La Nina weather pattern are good news for coral,” explains a recent article from ABC news. This year many damaged or “bleached” reefs will be soaking in the benefits of La Nina. That means if you work in Underwater Tourism your business future could be looking a little brighter. Lush, healing coral is what tourists travel the world to encounter. That’s good news for divers, maritime historians and people who fish.
There are other industries that are also impacted by La Nina but don’t realize it. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), La Nina produces above normal amounts of precipitation in the United State’s Pacific Northwest and dryer than normal conditions in the southern states. The media focuses on the extremes (as they should) from the devastating flooding in Washington State to the record-setting drought in the Southeast. However there are extreme, La Nina-related events happening in your own backyard. The Science Daily article “NASA Observes La Nina: This ‘Little Girl’ Makes a Big Impression,” explains that when it comes to La Nina, “what some may see as just a small change in sea surface temperature has a much greater impact on our climate here in the U.S. and across the globe, as well as implications for the fishing industry and the global economy.”
Posted on Fri Jan 18 13:46:24 CST 2008Middle East Cold Snap: Israel’s got good news and bad news
Many businesses in Israel are feeling the financial impact of the recent cold snap. Some are benefiting while others are suffering. Agriculture is bearing the brunt of the damage. Tens of thousands of tons of already drought-weakened vegetables (potatoes, carrots, eggplant, etc.) have been destroyed by cold temperatures. Meantime “heating appliances and warm clothing are reporting sales of some items have jumped by as much as 300%,” reports Haaretz, Israel’s oldest Newspaper that has an online edition available in English.
In the article “Farmers suffer, down quilt sellers profit from cold weather,” Haaretz reporters interviewed the agricultural director of the Maon region, Shay Rubin. Rubin said the cold weather “would have dire financial repercussions” for not just farmers and consumers but for all the businesses between including packing houses, marketers and exporters. Rubin also told the reporters that “insurance does not provide a solution for such large scale disasters, and that the [Israeli] government would be called on to join in the effort in this exceptional case.” The cold snap is such a rare event (the last one happened in 1997), that many growers didn’t have any cold protection at all. Sadly, these extreme weather events are times they need protection the most.
Agriculture got one side of the weather coin, retail got another. Haaretz reports that the Israeli clothing retailer Renuar and Castro saw a 15% sales increase in cold weather apparel. Down blanket sales are up 50%, according to The Manufacturers Association reports. Cold weather comfort foods are also benefiting from the chilly temperatures. Wissotzky tea sales are up 10% and chocolate sales increased 17%.
Interestingly, the Jerusalem Post reports that synthetic grass sales and services are on the rise in Israel. Oz Grass reports a 25% sales increase, saying that their product “is unaffected by swings in temperature, and has therefore become a desirable solution for customers looking to maintain a green lawn throughout the year.”
Posted on Wed Jan 16 15:14:35 CST 2008Weather and Locally Grown Food
While searching for a blog topic today I came across The Ethicurean website. According to the site, an ethicurean is “someone who seeks out tasty things that are also sustainable, organic, local, and/or ethical.” That sounded delicious and, since it was lunch time, I continued reading.
One of Ethicurean’s contributors, Janet (I wish I had her last name!), has just blogged about what many food experts say is 2008’s hottest food trend: buying food grown within 150 miles of your home. The movement is sweeping through kitchens and restaurants across the United States. Google has been a believer in the 150 rule for more than a year (see Cafe 150) and so has 32 East in Delray Beach, Florida.
The 150 movement is feasible (dare I say “luxurious”) for Californians and Floridians but not everyone in the United States has access to fresh, local food year round. The main reason it works so well in CA and FL is that these states have great growing weather. On The Ethicurean, Janet writes “as much as I love local food, I am not in a hurry for the day when everything I eat is locally grown. Weather is the reason why.” To find out if you agree with Janet and read what other people are saying about the 150 trend, read her post.
On another “sustainable agriculture” note, click here to read how citrus growers can sustain predictable profits.
Posted on Mon Jan 14 15:07:18 CST 2008Snow in Baghdad
Some eloquent writing from Associated Press reporter Christopher Chester on the first Baghdad snowfall in more than 100 years:
“For a couple of hours anyway, a city where mortar shells routinely zoom across to the Green Zone became united as one big White Zone. As of late afternoon, there were no reports of violence. The snow showed no favoritism as it fell faintly on neighborhoods Shiite and Sunni alike, and (with apologies to James Joyce) upon all the living and the dead.”
Experts say snow in Baghdad isn’t a sign that global warming is a scam. Reuters explains why the climate is still getting warmer in the article “World warming despite cool Pacific and Baghdad snow.”
Posted on Fri Jan 11 19:04:17 CST 2008“I just got them on sale”
That quote is music to customer ears but sounds more like nails on a chalkboard for retailers. WeatherBill is headquartered near the heart of San Francisco’s prime shopping district which is currently peppered with “sale” signs. There’s a reason for the increase in bold, red-letter sale signage: last month marked the weakest holiday shopping season in seven years as budget-minded consumers faced higher gas prices, a housing market melt-down and recession rumors.
In the article “Poor December at Retailers; Most Report Drop in Sales,” The New York Times reports that one retailer came out ahead last month: “Wal-Mart, whose relentless price slashing appeared to resonate with penny pinching shoppers.” While big chains like Target and Kohls watched sales fall, Wal-Mart saw a 2.7 percent sales increase. That type of stand-out sales offering and performance is essential to retail survival. Another way to differentiate and get consumer attention is to create a custom weather promotion.
Posted on Fri Jan 11 12:50:31 CST 2008This is January, right?
There have been reported sightings of flip flops in the United State’s Northeast this week, prompting residents to wonder if their new 2008 calendars are botched. Are you sure it isn’t April?
According to Bloomberg, natural gas prices in Canada could take a nosedive because temperatures in the Northeast are nearly double their seasonal average. Reporter Ian McKinnon writes that “heating demand in the Northeast, the second largest export market after the Midwest for output of the fuel in Canada, may be 52 percent lower than seasonal.”
If unseasonably warm temperatures aren’t enough to confuse everyone, rare January tornadoes are touching down in the Midwest. The Associated Press reports that the “freak cluster of tornadoes” were reported in Missouri, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Illinois and Oklahoma. This is only the second recorded January tornado in Wisconsin (the first was in 1967) and Illinois’ first.
The warm weather is breaking records. Northeast Ohio broke a 101-year-old record yesterday with 64 degrees Fahrenheit. Temperatures climbed to 60 degrees in Chicago on Sunday, making it the warmest January 6th since 1907. Toronto set two back-to-back temperature records this week. Today temperatures reached 14.08 degrees Celsius, breaking the record of 11.7 degrees Celsius set in 1965. Yesterday Toronto reached 14 degrees Celsius, more than doubling the record set for the same day in 1998.
Experts say this month is only the beginning of what could be one of the top 10 warmest years on record. Forecasters predict 2008 will be warm but slightly cooler than recent years because this is a La Nina year. That’s because unlike El Nino, La Nina reduces ocean surface temperature. However a Met Office meteorologist in the United Kingdom recently told Reuters that just because “2008 is forecast to be cooler than any of the last seven years does not mean that global warming has gone away.”
Posted on Tue Jan 08 16:05:55 CST 2008“Concert canceled: R. Kelly blames the weather”
Pioneer Press reporter Ross Raihala has an eye for weather news. Here’s his latest article, short and to the point:
“Citing ‘inclement weather,’ RB crooner R. Kelly has canceled his Thursday night performance at the Target Center in Minneapolis. The show will not be rescheduled and refunds are available at the point of purchase. Kelly spent the weekend performing in California. A review from the San Francisco Chronicle reported less than half-capacity attendance for his Sunday-night concert, one of several tour stops to suffer soft ticket sales.”
At least he uses the word “soft” to refer to the ticket sales.
Posted on Tue Dec 18 17:00:44 CST 2007“Few things slow crime like a good old Nebraska snowstorm”
That’s a quote from Chief Tom Casady of Lincoln, Nebraska who writes that certain types of crime decline in his city during severe winter storms. The reason, according to Casady, is that criminals generally don’t like to “be very uncomfortable.”
The Chief recently blogged that three consecutive weekend storms have contributed to a 30% decrease of “Part One Crimes” in his city. Part One Crimes are violent crimes (from assault to murder) and property crimes (arson to vehicle theft) that are tracked by the FBI each year. These very serious offenses that are easier for the government to track than other types of crimes like driving under the influence and fraud. The reason is that Part One Crimes are almost always reported directly to police. Because they are easier to track and have been tracked for decades, the government is able to juxtapose the crime data with other types of historical records, including weather data.
When severe winter weather hits, property crimes are the first to fall and they typically fall along with the temperature. According to a 2002 study conducted by Florida International University, temperature is a significant predictor of property offenses. More crimes are reported during summer months than the winter. To learn more about how weather impacts crime where you live, visit the FBI’s Crime in the United States website.
Posted on Mon Dec 17 14:29:23 CST 200712 Days of Christmas: 12 ways weather can impact revenue and costs
12. Drummers Drumming- This time of year charities are drumming up donations and a popular way of drawing a crowd is to have a band on hand. The Daily Iowan recently featured a tuba player who recalled some memorable charity gigs impacted by bad weather. Lips freezing to your instrument? No thanks.
11. Pipers Piping- Every year in the United States millions of dollars of insurance losses occur because of frozen pipes.
10. Lords a Leaping- When it gets icy, lords and ladies do more slipping than leaping, and that gets expensive for insurance companies. According to KSDK in St. Louis, Missouri, “There were so many residents that took tumbles Monday that the emergency rooms were flooded.”
9. Ladies Dancing- Many ladies love dancing. What they don’t love is when the dance is canceled because of bad weather. According to The Capital Times of Madison, Wisconsin, “frequent snowfalls, ice and cold are taking a toll on attendance at local arts events.”
8. Maids a Milking- When the weather gets rough, the milk maids get going. “The owners of the Center Street Deli said the storms have been good for business, increasing sales of such items as milk, bread, beer and soda,” writes reporter Mark Boshnack for the New York Daily Star. Wait, aren’t those the four food groups?
7. Swans a Swimming- Seven swans with satellite transmitters, that is. The whopper swan tracking project is tracking the birds to learn more about their migratory behavior. The birds are an important feature of wildlife tourism in the United Kingdom, especially places like the Oxford Island Nature Reserve. Bad weather can keep the swans from reaching their destination. Fewer swans, fewer tourist dollars.
6. Geese a Laying- Bad weather is good news for free range geese in the United Kingdom. Wet weather means greener pastures for grazing and fat, happy fowl. That’s good news for goose farmers.
5. Golden Rings- Just about the only thing that can completely kill the momentum of holiday retail sales is bad weather. Even a bad forecast can deter customers for shopping for things like jewelry. Click here to read about how a jeweler was impacted by “the storm that wasn’t.”
4. Four Calling Birds- There isn’t a whole lot of calling going on after a major ice storm. Phone lines often times bear the brunt of ice. Repairs can be expensive for phone companies, who are now spending lots of money to bury wires. Read how underground wires are saving companies money, and their reputation, during bad weather in the Tulsa World.
3. Three French Hens- If the three French hens are smart, they’re probably out skiing, taking advantage of “the best December snow for 20 years.” The Val d’Isere resort is certainly enjoying the powder. 35 ski lifts out of 46 are currently open. The resort is hoping to make up two decades of bad conditions.
2. Two Turtle Doves- The Thirsty Turtle bar in Wisconsin is enjoying some additional revenue thanks to an early dose of cold weather. That’s because behind the bar is some of the best pike ice fishing in the state. Like many Wisconsin businesses, the Thirsty Turtle (great bar name!) benefits when the neighborhood ice fishing industry thrives with good weather.
1. A Partridge in a Pear Tree- Tree removal is now a priority in Iowa. Bad weather means good revenue for tree businesses.
Posted on Fri Dec 14 13:47:08 CST 2007No control over the weather nor the crowds
Lack of control over the weather is bad enough. Throw in lack of crowd control and you’ve got real problems. From Reuters on December 12th, 2007: “S.African trains torched after weather delays”
“Angry commuters set fire to two trains in South Africa’s capital Pretoria after severe storms disrupted rail services, SAPA news agency reported on Wednesday… Commuters became impatient with the delays, setting fire to two trains as the rail operator tried to organize buses to ferry passengers to their destinations… Four train coaches were torched and damage amounting to millions of rand was caused to an overhead electricity cable… ‘Metrorail condemns the behaviour of commuters following delays caused by the storm — which it had no control over,’ SAPA quoted Metrorail spokeswoman Thokozani Zithashe as saying.”
Posted on Wed Dec 12 15:26:32 CST 2007Climate Change and Tibet
Clear, thin air in Tibet
Weather-related disasters are happening more frequently in Tibet because of climate change, according to Xinhua. The Chinese news agency reports that temperatures in the Himalayan region are rising faster than the rest of China, “with visible consequences.”
Back in November, Xinhua interviewed the director of the Tibet Regional Meteorological Bureau. He reported that “receding snow lines, shrinking glaciers, drying grasslands and desert expansion are increasingly threatening the natural eco-system in the region” and that the consequences of these natural disasters “are more severe and losses are bigger.” He points to two recent disasters as examples: a massive landslide in southeast Tibet and the Shigatse flood.
The temperature in Tibet has been rising 0.54 degrees Fahrenheit every decade. Xinhua reports that that increase is about 10 times faster than the national average. Sometimes it’s hard to believe temperatures are increasing in a country that can be so cold. WeatherBill’s founder and CTO Siraj Khaliq recently went to Tibet. He says the Everest base camp was the coldest destination during the trip, although Siraj isn’t sure if it was the temperature or the wind chill that had the biggest impact on his comfort level. He took some great pictures, which he says was frequently quite a challenge. Siraj says “it was so cold much of the time that I had to force myself to take my camera out of my bag.”
Tibet’s atmosphere is uniquely cold because of the high altitude. The thin air cannot block nor retain heat. To put the thin air into prospective, climatologists say the daily extreme cold temperature in Tibet is just as likely to be reached during the day as it is at night.
Pollution masks
In a developing country like Tibet, climate change can be especially devastating to the local economy and health. The Climate Risk Index (CRI) created by Germanwatch, a nonprofit organization, indicates that less developed countries suffer far more from storms, floods and weather extremes than industrialized nations. The CRI is being presented at the United Nations climate change conference in Bali where world leaders are working on a mandate that will limit the risk of climate change. For a more detailed look at the CRI, click here.
Posted on Tue Dec 11 19:13:16 CST 2007Protecting your future profits by knowing your past
In the late 1700’s, the British author Edward Gibbon wrote “I know no way of judging of the future but by the past.”
When it comes to managing your weather risk, knowing weather’s past is just as important as knowing the forecast. Studying historical weather data is one of the best ways to understand how your business could be impacted by weather in the future. For example, historical weather data helps establish seasonal trends and helps determine what amount of extreme weather has hurt your business’s revenue.
Most major businesses understand the importance of historical weather data, including those in the airline industry. The flight planning service offered by EDS uses historical weather data to help operators search and analyze new travel routes. According to the company, by looking at the past they are able to reduce fuel costs and increase dispatcher productivity and efficiency in the future.
This week, Harris Corporation, an international communications and information technology company, has moved the United States Federal Aviation Administration’s weather radar data to the FAA Telecommunications Infrastructure.
This is great news for airlines, airports, and consumers. The move will help air traffic controllers receive weather radar information faster, making air traffic movements more calculated and efficient. Not only is the data making things run smoother, it is also helping save money. The Orlando Business Journal reports the data will help the FAA “save more than $600 million over the life of the program.” Not bad.
Posted on Mon Dec 10 13:36:10 CST 2007The US has a stormy future, according to a new study
Climate change researchers at Purdue University are forecasting a dramatic increase in severe weather conditions in the United States. Using climate models based on weather conditions that contribute to severe thunderstorms, the researchers found that the number of severe storms could double by the end of this century.
The study is full of interesting findings. Here are three of them:
1. The scientists say the research demonstrates how small increases in temperature can have a dramatic impact on daily weather.
2. They can’t predict the individual storm but they can project the number of days with storm conditions and how severe a storm will be if it occurs (which sounds like a good format for a revised hurricane season prediction model).
3. The study concludes that when it comes to climate change, there’s a strong seasonal and regional variation in impact. While some cities will see more than twice the number of storms other cities will only see a slight increase. One of the researchers describes the future of storms as “feast or famine.”
To read the press release on the research, visit the Science Daily website.
Posted on Wed Dec 05 20:52:20 CST 2007Pacific Winter Storm: Is your business being impacted?
Winter doesn’t officially begin until December 22nd but from the Northwest to the Northeast winter is making an early start.
A warning for hurricane force winds is in effect today for the Pacific Northwest… even without a hurricane. Meteorologists say the winds are being generated by a low pressure system from the north as it collides with a high pressure from the south. The result is a wind tunnel, producing 100 miles per hour wind speeds along Oregon and Washington coasts.
The wind is pushing the system across the North but high winds aren’t the only problem. In the Pacific Northwest, rain is flooding some areas and creating mudslides in others. In the Midwest, they’re getting snow and ice, and lots of it. The storm is also expected to reach the Northeast this week.
Jeff Johnson from The National Weather Service in Iowa tells the Des Moines Register that when it comes to winter weather, “Ice by itself is more risk than snow, so far as potential for damage and problems.” City officials agree, and it isn’t helping their budgets that this storm is early. “It’s a little sooner than it’s been the last few years,” says Justin Yarosevich, assistant city administrator for aptly-named Storm Lake. Storm Lake and many Midwestern cities are rolling out salt trucks. The Chicago Sun-Times reports that “the Department of Streets & Sanitation’s snow command was sending their full main fleet of 273 ’snow fighting trucks’ to the city’s main streets and Lake Shore Drive.”
This storm is impacting nearly every industry in its path and maybe even your business. Extreme weather can decrease revenue and increase costs. Here are some examples:
Transportation - Icy roads and airport runways can bring transportation, and revenue, to a halt. The current storm canceled 150 flights out of Chicago O’Hare on Saturday. The Seattle Times reports that today “most major roads in Grays Harbor and Pacific counties were closed or blocked, including U.S. Highways 12 and 101″ and that “this morning nearly every road into Aberdeen was closed or blocked.” Closed roads and airports prevent business from getting into and out of a city.
Housing - As temperatures go down, heating bills are on the rise for landlords and tennants. Many cities, including Chicago, have ordinances that require building temperatures to be above a certain degree. There are also seasonal maintenance issues that can be costly, like preventing drafts and fixing heaters.
Politics - When it comes to politics, bad weather can cost votes. CNN producer Chris Welsh sums it up best: “Weather is bipartisan.” He blogs that on Saturday the storm “kept Sen. Hillary Clinton and former president Bill Clinton out of Iowa, and it’s caused former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney to cancel his campaign events for the day.” Yesterday, Sen. Joe Biden was an hour late to the Iowa Brown and Black Presidential Forum. Welsh writes that Biden’s flight from Chicago to Des Moines was canceled so he drove 300 miles.
Posted on Mon Dec 03 17:42:27 CST 2007Bad Weather Cancels National Anthem
“Oh-oooh say can you see?!” The first few notes of the National Anthem usually send sports fans scurrying for their seats at stadiums, ballparks and arenas. The song, besides being a symbol of American pride, is a sign that the game’s about to start. During last night’s Dolphins-Steelers game, bad weather canceled the National Anthem. You can imagine the surprise of people waiting in line for a hot dog when they found out the kickoff already happened.
According to the Associated Press, the National Football League (NFL) wanted to get the ball rolling as soon as possible after heavy rain hit during team warm-ups. After the 25-minute delay the game began sans pregame ceremonies, including the National Anthem.
Many people didn’t notice, but others did, including veterans. In the My Troops Blog, one veteran writes “No time or plan for the National Anthem because of the uncertainty and chaos from the weather delay? No go, in my book. Our troops and law enforcement officers who protect our nation deal with uncertainty and chaos 24/7. We have time to setup a microphone and sing the National Anthem out of respect to our nation and our proud history.”
Posted on Tue Nov 27 12:14:50 CST 2007
2007 Hurricane Season
Hurricane season officially ends on November 30th. Back at the start of the season, which began on June 1st, scientists predicted an extremely active season. Before June, scientists William Gray and Philip Klotzbach at Colorado State University predicted there would be 17 named storms in 2007. They said nine of those storms would become hurricanes and five of them would be intense (110+ mph winds). Four days from now, the 2007 season will go down in history as an average one.
To meet the Gray-Klotzbach pre-season forecast before the season ends, the Atlantic will have to produce three more named storms and four hurricanes in the next four days. Three of the hurricanes will need to be intense. It doesn’t seem like that’s going to happen. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s daily Atlantic Tropical Weather Updates page reports that in “the North Atlantic… Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico… Typical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.”
Today reporter Martin Merzer with the Miami Herald is asking the question on everyone’s mind: “Why do [scientists] bother? And given the errors — which can undermine faith in the entire hurricane warning system — are these full-season forecasts doing more harm than good?”
Merzner does his best to answer that question in the article “Hurricane predictions miss the mark,” writing that many scientists are afraid that “substantial errors in those full-season predictions can undermine faith in their generally accurate forecasts of actual storms.”
What about the impact of climate change on hurricane season? Earlier this month reporter Eric Berger wrote an article titled “Fizzling hurricane season stokes global warming debate” for the Houston Chronicle. Berger writes that “scientists who believe global warming is having a measurable effect on hurricanes say climate change is more apt to influence the intensity of systems, rather than the overall number.”
Posted on Mon Nov 26 17:03:10 CST 2007Why Turkeys Don’t Fly
America’s favorite holiday dinner, the turkey, isn’t a flier. Domestic turkeys don’t fly and wild turkeys can fly but they don’t fly far. Maybe it’s because of the crowds: Over the next 12 days, 27 million Americans are expected to fly in airplanes at 90 percent capacity.
The president of the Air Transport Association of America is hoping that worst case scenario preparations will prevent the worst airline delays from happening this holiday. “If you always expect the worst, then when (it doesn’t come, everyone’s) frame of mind will be much more positive,” said James May in an interview with the Associated Press. With that many people flying and November’s propensity for bad weather, May has every right to expect the worst. Bad weather, in some cases heavy snowfall, is already impacting holiday travel at many of the nation’s largest airports including Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson, New York’s LaGuardia and airports in Chicago, Oklahoma and Oregon.
Many airlines are preparing for the worst by hiring more holiday employees, stocking up on food and water for flights that may be stranded on runways, and hiring buses to pick up other stranded passengers. The Federal Government is doing its best to maintain order in security lines, offering refresher video tutorials in some airports on how to get through security and encouraging travelers to “pack neatly.” Even President Bush is trying to help ease holiday travel by opening military airspace to commercial airlines.
According to MSNBC, in spite of all these efforts, “all it will take is some bad weather to seriously gum up commercial aviation traffic.” In industry reports and in the media, many airlines seem to shrug their shoulders at the weather, even use it as a scapegoat. As Mark Twain said, “everyone talks about the weather, but not everyone does something about it.” But this week a couple of airlines are actually doing something. American has reserved hundreds of seats throughout the system to accommodate passengers who miss their connecting flights because of bad weather. Northwest has a 20-point plan for disrupted flights. One of those points is to wave rebooking fees for customers stranded by weather.
Other airlines aren’t doing anything about the threat of bad weather. The quote of the (holi)day comes from a Midwest Airlines spokesman in an Associated Press article: “We’re not doing anything above and beyond what we normally do. If weather plays into the whole situation, all the airlines have to deal with that and make contingency plans. But you cross the bridge when you come to it.” 27 million people in 12 days and the airline isn’t doing anything beyond what it would normally do? Doesn’t exactly make you want to flap your wings.
Posted on Wed Nov 21 13:28:45 CST 2007WeatherBill Arrives in The Netherlands
WeatherBill gelanceerd in Nederland! Ondernemingen in de bouw krijgen nieuwe vorm van vorstverletverzekering.
We are excited to be adding a new flag to our wall. WeatherBills are officially available in The Netherlands. We have also launched our newest product available exclusively in The Netherlands. It’s called The Netherlands Frost Day Contract and it provides an affordable solution for construction firms absorbing the cost of the worker Frost Leave benefit, called “vorstverlet” in Dutch.
Frost Leave is a defined benefit for construction workers in The Netherlands. The benefit states that workers are permitted to go home with pay during a Frost Day. A Netherlands Frost Day Contract pays a construction firm when the number of Frost Days reaches a predetermined amount set by the firm, during a specified time period. Unlike historical forms of Frost Leave protection, a WeatherBill Frost Day Contract can be customized and purchased online at any time.
WeatherBill Frost Day Contracts are available in Amsterdam, De Bilt, Deelen, Eindhoven, Groningen, Twenthe, Maastricht and Rotterdam.
Posted on Wed Nov 14 11:30:52 CST 2007The (Insurance) Rate of Climate Change
Evan Mills, who works at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, writes for Science that most forms of insurance are vulnerable to climate change. Mills writes that “climate change can have adverse impacts on insurance affordability and availability, potentially slowing the growth of the industry and shifting more of the burden to governments and individuals.”
Mills explains that as some insurers increase premiums and deductibles, lower limits, add nonrenewals and new exclusions to compensate for climate change, some consumers “shift from the use of insurance to alternatives such as weather derivatives.” If you get a chance, read Mills’ entire article, “Insurance in a Climate of Change.”
The rating system for property insurance is partially based on weather cycles. Premiums rise when and where severe weather is most likely to strike, especially along coasts and on islands. Australia’s The Age reports that “the cash value of a home would be cut by up to 80 per cent if it is deemed uninsurable for a severe weather event caused by global warming.” Homes and businesses at a high risk for catastrophic exposure are not being renewed along the United States Atlantic and Gulf Coasts.
There’s another type of insurance that is impacted by weather: car insurance. Steve Clark wrote an article titled “See you in court” for Baton Rouge’s Business Report. We stumbled upon it because the article mentions WeatherBill (like you haven’t Googled your own name). Clark writes that Louisiana is the “Perfect Storm” when it comes to car insurance. He writes that they’ve got it all: “wet weather, bad roads, heavy traffic, drunk driving, etc.”
Clark explains that those factors make Louisiana the most expensive state in the US for auto insurance. The average annual premium in Louisiana is $2,740 “despite recent rate decreases (6.1% in 2005 and 3.4% in 2006), and despite tough laws aimed at reducing the number of uninsured motorists on the road.”
Clark writes that the main reason for the higher rates in LA is the “frequency of claims.” That’s when the finger pointing really starts. Clark first points at the weather. That’s where our name gets dropped in the article.
“Blame the weather. Four of the 10 rainiest U.S. cities are in Louisiana, according to a study by San Francisco-based WeatherBill Inc. New Orleans ranked third (behind Mobile, Ala., and Pensacola, Fla.) with an average of 64 inches; Baton Rouge, Lafayette and Miami are tied for fifth with 62 inches; and Lake Charles is 10th with 58 inches.”
Also blamed are Louisiana’s drive-thru daiquiri shops, roads that were built for horses and now transport SUV’s, urban driving, and higher taxes on insurance. But then the finger pointing goes back to the weather: “the hundreds of thousands of automobiles drowned by Katrina.”
Clark ends the article by writing that “during the past year State Farm has processed more than 7,000 lawsuits stemming from Louisiana car crashes… The cost to defend those lawsuits is double what the company spends in the other four zone states.” That’s expensive. Unlike the other factors, eh-hem, drive-thru daiquiri shops, weather is not controllable. You can pass laws that help prevent drunk driving and you can fix a road but you cannot control the weather.
Update: Evan Miles sent over this link to his newly updated study, “From Risk to Opportunity 2007.” It highlights insurance companies that are using innovative products that help reduce the risk of climate change. One interesting topic that pertains to car insurance is Pay-As-You-Drive, which is being offered by Progressive Insurance (US) and Norwich Union (UK). Read the study to find out how it works.
Posted on Tue Nov 13 12:01:32 CST 2007Weather Forecasts And Oil Prices
Checking the weather forecast is a daily ritual for many of us. It helps us decide what to wear, when we need an umbrella, how high or low we set our thermostats, and what to pack for lunch (chilly temperatures = soup, warm temperatures = change to buy some ice cream). Some experts say the weather forecast also reveals how much we will be paying for oil.
That’s because oil consumption has historically fluctuated with temperature. Consumption increases during cold winters when we turn up the heat and drops during mild winters when we are less dependent on artificial air for comfort. When we use less oil than oil companies anticipate, oil reserves start to pile up. For example, Winter 2006 had unusually mild temperatures which largely contributed to oil prices falling to $50 US per barrel in mid-January.
$50 a barrel was sooooo last winter. Today the Associated Press reported that “light, sweet crude for December delivery fell $1.70 to settle at $94.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.” Maybe a lump of coal in your stocking isn’t such a bad thing. Other types of energy start looking good when oil hits $100 US per barrel. The price is now lingering around $95.
Meteorologists say Winter 2007-2008 is predicted to be another mild one especially since it’s a La Nina year. However oil experts say it’s still too soon to forecast exactly how La Nina will impact winter oil prices. Winter is still a long way off. The first day of winter doesn’t officially start until December 22nd. In an interview with Fortune magazine, Mary Novak, an energy risk analyst at Global Insight, reports that the forecast has to be clear of winter weather for oil prices to start falling.
“If we get a cold snap in the first week of December, prices could easily go over $100,” says Novak in the Fortune article. “Otherwise, they’ll stay where they are until the threat of a cold weather is gone.”
Speaking of forecasts, just how accurate is yours? ForecastAdvisor provides you with a local 5 day weather forecast along with the accuracy of predictions made by major weather forecast outlets like AccuWeather.
Posted on Mon Nov 12 19:49:41 CST 2007“Global Warming; It is a SCAM.”
That quote comes from the founder of The Weather Channel. Read his newest blog on how global warming is “a manufactured crisis” by clicking here.
Posted on Thu Nov 08 16:38:44 CST 2007Retailers see red after October shopping blues
Halloween is over, Thanksgiving is two weeks away, Hanukkah isn’t until December 4th and Christmas is about 47 days away. That can only mean one thing: it’s time to start holiday shopping! This year, holiday decorations were spotted in a couple San Francisco stores before kiddies had the chance to say “trick-or-treat.” Last weekend it was especially strange to see artificial snow, evergreens and peace doves adorning store windows since many of us were wearing shorts and flip flops. It’s hard to purchase a warm, wool sweater when it’s 75 degrees Fahrenheit in November. That’s exactly why many major retailers in the United States are sweating.
Today JC Penney sounded the holiday retail sales alarm. When JCP gets worried, other retailers take notice. The company is one of the US’s leading retailers with more than 1,000 department stores and the nation’s largest general merchandise catalog business. JCP says October’s unusually warm weather forced sales to fall 1.8 percent. The company’s CEO tells The Financial Times that he expects “the challenging retail environment to continue for the foreseeable future.”
JC Penney isn’t the only retailer that’s worried. Macy’s October sales were down 1.5 percent and Kohl’s fell by 3.8 percent. In an interview with The Business Journal, Kohl’s CEO says “outerwear, fleece, and sweaters experienced significant declines on a comparable store basis, contributing to our sales shortfall.”
The International Council of Shopping Centers in
Election Day Weather
On November 6th, 2000, Al Gore was worried about the weather. He’s always worried about climate change but that day Gore was specifically worried about rain on Election Day. The day before the election, Gore’s campaign manager told CNN she was afraid rain in the Midwest would prevent Democrats from voting in key states. It turned out Gore had every right to be worried. The 2000 presidential election went down in history as one of the closest: Gore came in second in the electoral vote but received 543,000 more popular votes than George Bush who would go on to become President. Blame it on the rain?
It’s hard to measure the exact impact weather has on elections but, according to South Carolina Educational Television (SCETV) the media have been linking weather to voter turnout since the 1800’s. Some experts say it takes a hurricane, not just a rainy day, to keep voters away. SCETV interviewed a Political Science Professor at Winthrop University who said “voter turnout does not appear to depend heavily on extraneous factors such as the weather, unless an area is hit by a hurricane or severe blizzard.”
Then there are the experts who say any type of bad weather can have a significant impact on voter turnout.
Here’s a couple excerpts from “The Effect of Bad Weather on Voter Turnout and Partisan Vote Share In US Presidential Elections, 1948-2000.”
“The relationship between bad weather and lower levels of voter turnout is widely espoused by media, political practitioners, and, perhaps, even political scientists. Yet, there is virtually no solid empirical evidence linking bad weather to voter participation. This paper provides an extensive empirical test of this claim…”
“We examine the effect of weather on voter turnout in fourteen U.S. presidential elections (1948-2000). We employ meteorological data drawn from over 22,000 U.S. weather stations and GIS interpolations, providing us with data for each of the roughly 3000 U.S. counties during these elections…”
“We find that rain significantly reduces voter participation at the polls by a rate just under one percent per inch. Snowfall also decreases turnout, but only in rural counties. Moreover, we show that the estimated number of voters lost due to precipitation significantly benefits the Republican Party’s vote share and GOP incumbents particularly.”
One inch of rain equals one percent fewer voters? And rain is good for Republicans? No wonder Gore was so worried in 2000.
Posted on Tue Nov 06 12:35:05 CST 2007No snow, no World Cup skiing
“Bad weather cancels another World Cup ski event.” The headline would be bad enough without the word “another.” In recent years low snow or no snow has been bad for the World Cup skiing business. According to the article, “last season’s schedule was heavily disrupted by poor snow conditions and other weather-related factors, especially in the early months.”
Posted on Mon Nov 05 12:50:58 CST 2007Backyard Climate Change
Climate change isn’t just impacting the Arctic ice caps. It’s happening in one of the largest cities in the United States. A severe drought in Atlanta, Georgia could dry-out the city’s drinking water in a matter of weeks.
Until recently, local climate change hasn’t been on the minds of many Americans. The media focus has been on the impact of rising temperatures in other countries: Icy Greenland is feeling warmer and ocean levels are rising making tiny Pacific Islands even smaller. But in Atlanta the climate change focus has shifted from an international crisis to a backyard emergency. Many people are doing their part to conserve water (click here for some tips) and others are stockpiling it (good for water suppliers and grocery store revenue). The emergency is also turning into a legal battle. On Friday the State of Georgia confirmed that it is suing the Army Corps of Engineers in an effort to get more water pumping into the state.
The National Climatic Data Center has plans to launch a new site that will help local governments monitor the drought and help the public know how it is impacting their cities and towns. The site is called Drought.gov but it isn’t activated yet. We will let you know when it is up and running but in the mean time you can check out the US Drought Monitor.
There’s one business that’s being helped by the dry weather: Pecan farmers are expecting a record crop. Another business that would be doing well in the drought is sport fishing. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution ran an interesting article a couple days ago called “Anglers staying away because of drought are missing the boat, guides say.” The AJC interviewed a guide who says it’s media hype, not the actual drought, that’s hurting his revenue. According to the guide the lower water level in many Georgia lakes means better fishing. He says “When the haystack is smaller, it makes finding the needle in that haystack a lot easier.”
Posted on Mon Nov 05 12:37:14 CST 2007Tropical Storm Noel
Hurricanes are rare in November and experts say the majority that form in November stay out in the Atlantic Ocean. But before you breath a sigh of relief, here’s a reminder that Hurricane Season doesn’t officially end until November 30th: Noel. Now a Tropical Storm, Noel’s winds could increase to hurricane strength over the Bahamas where a watch has been issued.
It’s interesting to note that there has been a hurricane every month of the year except April in recorded history.
Posted on Thu Nov 01 19:41:53 CDT 2007Mixed bag of weather for Halloween
Little Red and her Dad, Jeff
We had two special guests in the office for Halloween. Little Red Riding Hood (aka Emma) and Princess Leia (aka Elizabeth) are the youngest members of the WeatherBill team. Both of the girls got to go trick-or-treating last night in San Francisco, but not too late. By 9:00 pm it was cloudy with patchy fog and temperatures dipped into the 40s, according to KPIX.
In Phoenix, News Channel 12 meteorologists say ghosts and goblins enjoyed temperatures around 82 degrees Fahrenheit at 6pm. Temperatures were also warm in Dallas where, in an interview with The Dallas Morning News, one trick or treater said “I like the idea that it will be in the 70s so I won’t be freezing while I walk around… In our neighborhood, a lot of people sit out on the driveway and hand out candy…” Meantime in Denver some went door to door in the snow. Halloween in Florida was rainy and windy because of Tropical Storm Noel.
Princess Leia
The National Retail Federation (NRF) expects consumers spent around $5.07 billion this Halloween. But according to The State, this year “some stores say [sales have] been slow. Half-price sales to clear unsold merchandise, including candy, were common as early as last week. Some cite the economy, others blame a calendar that puts Halloween on a Wednesday.”
We normally don’t start touting WeatherBill products in this blog, but this is a perfect example of how weather promotions work. Weather promotions can help increase early holiday sales and make the most of your local weather forecast. Your customers could get refunded for rain in Florida, snow in Denver, or 80 degree temperatures in Phoenix. Here’s an example of how a weather promotion could work for Halloween: You sell 12-foot tall inflatable ghosts. Some of your customers are not sure about spending $135 on the decoration. But what if it came with a good weather guarantee? If it snows-rains-is hot on Halloween night, your customers get a full refund for the ghost.
WeatherBill is currently backing the largest weather promotion in history. It’s called “Let it Snow!” and is being used by Canada’s largest online travel retailer, itravel2000.com. We make promotions easy and affordable, because unlike Halloween decorations, weather promotions shouldn’t be scary.
Posted on Thu Nov 01 11:58:14 CDT 2007Flu season revenue and winter weather
Get the vaccines, hand sanitizers and vitamin C ready: it’s influenza time. Flu season runs from November to March, according to the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDCP), but many people, especially people with weak immune systems, are already getting flu shots.
Chances are your grandmother and your doctor have told you different reasons for why you catch the flu this time of year. Your doctor may have said it’s because more people stay indoors making the virus more transferable. Your grandmother probably blamed it on the harsh cold weakening your immune system (as she zipped up your third layer of jackets). Both reasons are based on chilly weather, but new research says it is the weather alone that causes the flu to be so contagious in the winter.
New Flu Research
Researchers at Mount Sinai School of Medicine in New York now say the flu thrives during cold, dry weather. Reporter Paul Taylor writes for The Globe and Mail that the cold “refrigerates” the virus, making it last longer, and the dryness helps make it stay airborne longer and reach more people. Kind of makes you want to hold your breath, doesn’t it? Read Taylor’s article by clicking here.
Warm Winters
Not only does the flu thrive in cold, dry weather. So does flu vaccination revenue. The CDCP reports that this season 125 million flu shots will be available in the United States, the most ever. Prices of shots range from $18 to $45. There aren’t many studies available on the specific impact weather can have on flu shot sales (or the Healthcare Industry in general) but there are a couple of interesting statistics from the 2006-2007 National Influenza Vaccine Summit. That year manufacturers delivered 120.9 million doses to the US market. That delivery was record setting, but so were the number of unused doses: 18.4 million. Interestingly, a third record was set that winter. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), December 2006 to February 2007 marked the warmest winter ever recorded.
Far more studies and analysis will have to be conducted, but some industries see a direct impact on flu vaccine sales and warm winters. Some “experts” include elementary school principals (because their students seem to be “experts” at getting and transmitting colds and the flu). The National Association of Elementary School Teachers (NAESP) writes that during the 2006-2007 winter “warm weather in many regions of [the United States] has delayed the ‘get flu shot’ alarm in many households” and that “health officials are concerned that the mild winter will pacify people and they will be caught off-guard when flu season hits.”
Flu Season Retail
Vaccination sales aren’t the only sales impacted by warm weather during flu season. Orange juice companies have been known to rev-up their advertising campaigns during flu season. There’s lots of revenue to be made from people looking for great tasting sources of vitamin C in chilly months. One commercial is outlined as follows: “The first new ad, “Natural Remedies,” features a main character consuming unsavory cold and flu home remedies such as licorice root tea. After a look of obvious displeasure, he says to stay healthy you could instead simply drink a delicious glass of Florida orange juice.”
Other flu season favorites (funny, “flu” and “favorites” in the same sentence) include hand sanitizers, Jello, chicken noodle soup, and drinks with electrolytes. Also, vaccines are available at many big chain pharmacies like CVS and Rite Aid. Do you know anyone who can walk out of a pharmacy chain without buying batteries, magazines, film, shampoo, cotton balls, etc?
Posted on Fri Oct 26 17:47:38 CDT 2007Too cold for concrete
When you think of the state of Nevada, cold weather probably isn’t the first thing that pops into your head. Chilly temperatures in October certainly weren’t something Nevada City engineers expected to encounter during construction of the city’s Broad Street over crossing. An unseasonable cold-snap is now putting construction on hold.
“Paving with the ground temperature being so cold means the pavement oil would have a difficult time bonding to the rock, [Nevada City Engineer Bill] Falconi said. This is why most paving work is done during warm summer months, not when high temperatures struggle to reach 60 degrees for two weeks, he said.”
That quote is taken from “Broad Street work on ice?” Union reporter Greg Moberly writes that the intersections for the $60,000 to $70,000 plan probably won’t be done until next summer.
60% chance of rain in Atlanta this week (knock on wood)
People in Atlanta are doing their rain dances this week and forecasts look good. Weather Underground has big, purple question marks next to their 5 day forecast which calls for a chance of rain every day through Friday. Chances are also high according to The Weather Channel.
The WeatherBill Weather Planner widget reports that, based on 30 years of historical data, there’s a 42% probability of it raining on Friday. Want to find out the probability of rain in your city on Friday (or any day up until April 23rd, 2008)? Go to http://www.weatherbill.com/learn/widgets.
Drought is impacting thousands of businesses in the Southeast and water conservation has become a touchy subject in many industries. Some residents in Chapel Hill, North Carolina are upset that Duke and UNC-Chapel Hill’s field hockey teams are watering their synthetic turf. Anne Blythe wrote about the controversy for The News Observer in an article titled “Fake turf watered as supplies dry up.”
Posted on Mon Oct 22 16:01:28 CDT 2007Wedding WeatherBills
Excuses, excuses! In his blog, Allen Stern recently gave a couple dozen Web 2.0-style excuses for why he isn’t married yet. The first excuse is that he needs “to find her on Facebook” followed by a slew of others including an excuse for a sunny wedding: “WeatherBill will guarantee the sun will shine on the day we select, which by the way will be between the Web 2.0 and Demo conferences.”
We love the idea of a wedding with weather protection! Only catch is that to purchase a Weathe