Weather Contracts Tutorial
Daily Values
Daily Values are numbers that are created by comparing
raw weather measurements to a reference value. Calculating
Daily Values from weather data is the first step in determining
the payout of a WeatherBill contract. For Basic
Contracts, the Daily Values are just 1's and 0's,
showing whether or not the weather measurement crossed the
threshold. For Custom Contracts, the Daily Values can also show
the amount by which the weather measurement crossed the
threshold that was selected. Below are the different options
you can choose for Daily Values and examples describing how
they work:
Contract options for Daily Values:
Measurement above threshold: The Daily Value is the
amount by which the weather measurement exceeds the threshold.
If the weather measurement for a particular day is equal to or
less than the threshold, the Daily Value for that day is
0. For example, if a contract has a threshold of
65° and the weather measurement is 72°,
the Daily Value for that day would be 7, because the
temperature was 7 degrees above the threshold. If a
contract has a threshold of 65° and the
weather measurement is 60°, the weather
measurement would be 0.
Measurement below threshold: The Daily Value is the
amount by which the weather measurement falls below the
threshold. If the weather measurement for a particular day is
equal to or less than the threshold, the Daily Value for that
day is 0. For example, if a contract has a threshold of
45° and the temperature measurement was
33°, the Daily Value for that day would be 12
(not -12!) because the temperature was
12 degrees below 45°. If a contract has a
threshold of 45° and the weather measurement
was 50°, the weather measurement would be 0.
1 if weather measurement above threshold, 0 if not: The
Daily Value is 1 if the weather measurement is strictly
above the reference point, and 0 otherwise. This choice
of Daily Value is used for counting the number of
days that the weather measurement is above the Daily Value
Threshold. For example, if you have a "rainy days" contract
that pays for days with more than .1 inches of
precipitation, the Daily Values for days with more than
.1 inches of
precipitation will be 1's, and the Daily Values for days
with fewer than .1 inches will be 0's. At the end
of the contract, we add up the number of 1's to see how
many rainy days there were.
1 if weather measurement is at or below threshold, 0 if not
:
The Daily Value is 1 if the weather measurement is at or
below the threshold, and 0 otherwise. This choice of
Daily Value is used for counting the number of
days that the weather measurement is below the Daily Value
Threshold. For example, counting days where the minimum
temperature is less than 32°, or days where there
is no precipitation.
To help determine the best choice for the Daily Value in a
contract, you may want to consider the following question:
Does your business get hurt more severely as the weather gets
worse? If so, the first two choices would be good.
If your business is hurt once the weather crosses a certain
point but is not affected more severely as the weather gets
worse, then the last two types of Daily Values may
be best for you.
Examples:
Here are two examples to illustrate the differences
between choices of Daily Values.
Golf Course:
If
there is any rain beyond a light mist, be it a drizzle or a
downpour, no one wants to play golf. A golf course would want
to buy a contract that pays a fixed
amount for each day with more than a mist of rain (The third
choice on this page).
Mall:
Think about a large indoor mall. In the summer, the mall has
to use air conditioning to keep its customers cool. The amount
of money the mall spends on cooling each day depends on how hot
it is outside - it costs more to cool the mall on a 90°
day than on a 75° day. The mall would want a contract
that pays out per degree past a certain temperature threshold
(the first choice on this page).